Is another Boom Possible?

C

Commander Quan

The Cheese stands alone
I was looking through an old issue of SMOKE Magazine from 98 at the B&M's lounge this weekend, and kind of amazed at all the crap that was in there, cigars I've never heard of that I'm assuming didn't make it after the boom went bust. Being that I was in my early and mid teens I didn't experience the boom first hand and am happy for that fact.
Anyhow, with all the smoking bans going into effect all over the country and many other places baning cigars and pipes do you think it's even possible for another cigar boom to happen? Obviously people won't be buying cigars to smoke when they go out just to look cool. And from what I understand that was a major factor in the 90's
I certainly hope that another boom doesn't happen I'm happy with things they way they are.
 
Commander Quan said:
I was looking through an old issue of SMOKE Magazine from 98 at the B&M's lounge this weekend, and kind of amazed at all the crap that was in there, cigars I've never heard of that I'm assuming didn't make it after the boom went bust. Being that I was in my early and mid teens I didn't experience the boom first hand and am happy for that fact.
Anyhow, with all the smoking bans going into effect all over the country and many other places baning cigars and pipes do you think it's even possible for another cigar boom to happen? Obviously people won't be buying cigars to smoke when they go out just to look cool. And from what I understand that was a major factor in the 90's
I certainly hope that another boom doesn't happen I'm happy with things they way they are.
Click to expand...

I have to agree. For as much as I'd like to see the industry flourish, I never want to have to deal with the overproduction, poor quality and insane prices again.
 
Anything is possible, however, with the smoking police just about everywhere it would make it hard for people just to get togther and look cool, which was probably a big part of the last boom.
 
If Thompson's has anything to say about t there will be :D

I've had 6 people pass me their catalog or coupons since the holiday season's fired up.
 
Well, to answer your question you have to look at the underlying conditions that made the first boom possible.

That is the go-go 90s, a whole generation of young professionals looking for something to appreciate, a focus on consuming quality luxury goods.

Is this a boom time economy? I'm not sure.

Are there young professionals to fuel this boom? Sure, but there will be many of the same young professionals that were involved in the first boom, and why would they go back for another go around?

Are people looking or luxury? American's have a material surfeit previously unknown in human history. There has been talk of a closet glut, people have so much that they don't need any durable or semi durable goods anymore. Consumables like cigars might fit the bill for our spend/debt habits.

I don't know if I see another boom happening for at least another 10 years when another group of young professionals will be looking for "their thing."

Never can tell though.
 
It's kinda like crispy kreme when the atkins diet hit. I used to see them full all the time.

When Atkins hit, they were empty from then until now. People decided they like donuts rather than celery and bacon everyday. It's packed like a poolhall on friday night!

I believe the cigars and smoking bans will be the same. People will realize they are too damn unhappy without some sort of outlet like smoking a pipe and/or cigar. Sooner or later people will have enough and everything will come back. Hopefully not like the 90's boom, but something a little more restrained.
 
When the last cigar boom hit in the 1990s, I was still in elementary school, and had no idea what a cigar tasted like or how popular they had become. But I'm rather curious about the 1990s cigar boom, so maybe a BOTL who experienced it first hand could be kind enough to answer a few questions of mine . . .

1) Was the cigar boom limited to the American market or was it world wide?

2) Exactly what was its time span?

3) Did it affect ISOM prices and availability?
 
Commander Quan said:
...do you think it's even possible for another cigar boom to happen?
Click to expand...

The conditions that brought about that particular boom are probably unlikely to reoccur. However the 14 years from 1900-14 must have seemed quite different from the 14 years from 1925-39, but the wars that followed must have seemed remarkably similar to those who suffered in both, at least in terms of loss and hardship.

So, if you will allow me, I will rephrase your question to a more personal level: "Is it possible that there will come a time when I am unable to buy cigars I enjoy at a price I am able, or even prepared, to pay?"

If you live in California, notwithstanding any availability over the Internet or your contacts in the world of organized crime, that possibility came realistically close recently, merely through proposed tax increases. The market is balanced at the moment, and mostly the people who influence the market on either side of the law of supply and demand want to keep it that way.

The 14 years we are now in are characterized by large multinationals whose goals are best served by stable markets. The smaller producers have their risks spread through contract manufacturing for 'brand only' distributors. Some brand owners may encourage their tiny sector of the market to overheat, and every producer wants a very profitable premium brand to sell like hot cakes. Producers and vendors generally want to nudge consumers gently in the direction of higher priced lines with higher revenues and bigger profit margins, but these conditions rarely drive markets into boom conditions. Additionally, provided the market has capacity at lower price points, the consumers can shift their buying patterns accordingly. In an ideal world that tends to make for a healthy market all round.

You will have noticed that it doesn't take much to tip a seesaw. There are unpredictable factors like plant diseases, catastrophic climatic events, and political unrest, though their unpredictability does not include the likelihood that one or other will not happen in the forseeable future. If I had to identify a single facor that might make the nightmare scenario of my earlier question come true, it would be the emergence of another large but presently dormant market. If the USA embargo against Cuba continues, Altadis will naturally look to somewhere like China for expansion. A market growth for Cuban cigars might reasonably be expected to drive a growth in the sales of non Cuban cigars. Higher demand without increased availability (remember the tobacco farmer to the cigar roller lead times) brings about scarcity and higher prices.

The next famous hoarding in Picadilly may one day be, "What Price Churchills?"

http://tinyurl.com/vgs76
 
Maybe it matters what area you are from or something, but I think there IS another boom happening now.

There are frequent newspaper articles here about how the cigar industry is in a high period. I have also read articles about how well local B&Ms are doing. All of these articles are in the business section and have a profit-loss slant rather than a homespun slant.

Granted, by itself, this means nothing. I have been into cigars for only 3 or so years, so any mention of cigars before 2003 would have had to been along the lines of "Fuente 8-5-8 on sale! 1st buyer gets choice of Catherine Zeta Jones, Kate Beckinsale or Rachael Ray as love slave." for me to pay any attention to them. Post 2003 however, I have seen these stories rise from a local-boy-does-good-selling-smokes piece every once and awhile to a local-business-makes-a-killing kind of frequently.

Pair that with there are quite a few 18 year olds interested in this pastime and it screams trend.
 
I believe that there is not likely to be a boom in the '90's sense, which I lived through, due to all of the anti-smoking legislation. Absent a place to go smoke and have a drink, cigar consumption is likely plateaued right now.

I do very much see a resurgence in the "speakeasy", only this time the focus will be unjust tobacco laws instead of booze. This may in and of itself add some mystique to cigar smoking and cause another more subtle "boom".
 
KingMeatyHand said:
...but I think there IS another boom happening now.
Click to expand...

As always, the sorts of questions one asks, and whom one asks, will determine the sorts of answers one will receive. Surprisingly, the sorts of cigars we are interested in (hand made premiums) are mostly imported, and mostly by only nine distributors. TOB (Tobacco Outlet Business) Online has an article entitled 'The Suprising State of Tobacco' (scroll down to '2005 Cigar Snapshot'):

http://tinyurl.com/uqe99

"For the fourth consecutive year, imports of premium cigars into the U.S. continued rising in 2005, posting a 13.6 percent gain over the year prior, according to U.S. Customs data analyzed and adjusted by the Cigar Association of America (CAA)."

In June 2005 CigarEnvy.com ran a piece from Rich Perelman of CigarCyclopedia.com about the 2004 figures being revised downwards—I only mention this... well you know, lies, damned lies, and statistics.

http://www.cigarenvy.com/2005/06/

I don't see a boom, but there may be others far more prescient, so this is not a rebuttal, just the feeling in my bones versus the feeling in your bones. A number of industry insiders have talked any growth down from 'boom' to 'boon', but pundits are inclined to tell what they want to happen, rather than what is happening. For a longer term view of the ups and downs of the cigar industry (hey, maybe there is a boom, like the one year one in 1960) FundingUniverse.com has an overview of the history of General Cigar:

http://tinyurl.com/y3mduj

Look, I know it was a deceptively short and simple question, but aren't they often the ones with long, complex answers?
 
Just to confirm whats been previously been stated, i've read a newspaper article recently
stating the increase in cigar production due to the increase in demand for them.
Industry experts say cigar production increase has been growing steadily over the last number of years, but its not the sharp dramatic rise that it was like in the 90's. This being a good thing since the manufacturers can adjust to these changes without the drop in quality or shortages. As well the new cigar smokers are more inclined to try for the sake of trying rather than be some of the posers and wannnabes back in the 1990's ie. cuz its trendy.
 
smellyfeet said:
As well the new cigar smokers are more inclined to try for the sake of trying rather than be some of the posers and wannnabes back in the 1990's ie. cuz its trendy.
Click to expand...

10 years ago they were moronic bandwagon scum.. now they are inquisitive seekers of knowledge? I have a hard time believing this to be true.

In all fairness, I know close to nothing about the "boom" other than the marketing bullshit that the vendors spew to sell crappy to semi-crappy smokes. I do know, just by passive observation, that the cigar industry is in a fairly rapid state of incline.. what that means for the future is anyone's guess.
 
Hmm...late 90's BOOM.

sounds like it was around the time the Soprano's came out. lol. i'm glad i got into cigars because there was a local shop where my g/f now lives and we decided to check it out one day.

we tried it out, enjoyed it, so we continually went.

finally we bought a humi and have been enjoying our sticks ever since. :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top